2018年6月27日 星期三

等待以低成本提供綠色能源的“獨角獸技術”可能比現在採用低碳能源技術更昂貴

 

日期: 2018年5月21日 資源:倫敦帝國學院

概要:


等待以低成本提供綠色能源的“獨角獸技術”可能比現在採用低碳能源技術更昂貴。

倫敦帝國理工學院的研究人員表示,如果英國在今天的低碳能源技術上投入更多資金,那麼從長遠來看,與等待可能永不實現的神秘未來技術相比,這將節省更多資金。

等待以低成本提供綠色能源的“獨角獸技術”可能比現在採用低碳能源技術更昂貴。

倫敦帝國理工學院的研究人員表示,如果英國在今天的低碳能源技術上投入更多資金,那麼從長遠來看,與等待可能永不實現的神秘未來技術相比,這將節省更多資金。


Waiting for a 'unicorn technology' that provides green energy at low cost could be more expensive than adopting low-carbon energy technologies now.

Researchers from Imperial College London say if Britain invested more in today's low-carbon energy technologies, it would save more money in the long term than waiting for a mythical future technology that may never materialise.

Waiting for a 'unicorn technology' that provides green energy at low cost could be more expensive than adopting low-carbon energy technologies now.

在今天發佈在Nature Energy上的一項研究中,他們表示,現在使用現有技術 - 即使它們不完美 - 可以節省61%的未來成本。

可再生能源技術,如太陽能電池板和風力發電場,正在不斷增加使用。 它們是到2050年實現氣候目標的計劃的關鍵部分,迄今為止從獲得大量支持幫助其部署中受益。

然而,使用其他低碳技術生產的能源目前比傳統​​化石燃料來源的生產成本更高。 這些包括碳捕獲和儲存(CCS),可以從化石燃料電廠排放中去除二氧化碳。 因此,那些規劃新電力系統的人經常將這些技術的成本作為反對更多采用和投資的理由。

研究人員擔心,在規劃未來時,一些決策者更願意等待一種以零碳排放,低成本和高靈活性發電的“獨角獸技術”,而不是投資於不完善的現有技術。

Researchers from Imperial College London say if Britain invested more in today's low-carbon energy technologies, it would save more money in the long term than waiting for a mythical future technology that may never materialise.

In a study published today in Nature Energy they say using existing technologies now -- even if they are imperfect -- could save 61 percent of future costs.

Renewable energy technologies, such as solar panels and wind farms, are growing in use. They are a key part of plans to meet climate targets by 2050 and have so far benefited from substantial backing to aid their deployment.




為了找出這一戰略的影響,來自帝國環境政策中心和化學工程系的研究人員對兩種極端情況之間的一系列未來情景進行了模擬。 所謂的“走出去”方案現在將對目前可行的可再生技術進行大量投資。 '等待'選項主張支持更便宜,更先進的低碳能源技術。

這個團隊模仿了英國電網在這些情況下的擴張,包括政府對現在的碳封存和核電等技術的投資,突破性的獨角獸技術的出現及其直接應用。

他們發現,不論是“獨角獸”是否實現,延遲對當今技術的投資可能對成本和排放產生重大影響。 例如,等待從未實現的技術將比現在部署現有技術的成本增加61%。

即使出現了“獨角獸”技術,等待仍然會增加成本,因為許多化石燃料基礎設施仍將建成,但尚未使用。 例如,可以建造新的天然氣工廠和管道,當新技術出現時不會使用新的天然氣工廠和管道,這意味著建造它們的成本被浪費了。

環境政策中心的研究負責人Clara Heuberger表示:“我們發現,這種近視計劃和投資延遲會導致電力系統規劃不合理,特別是這種情況會導致電力系統嚴重過大或未充分利用,或者到2050年遠未脫碳的那些。“




However, energy produced using other low-carbon technologies currently cost more to produce than traditional fossil fuels sources. These include carbon capture and storage (CCS), which removes carbon dioxide from fossil fuel power plant emissions. As a result, those planning new power systems often cite the cost of these technologies as a reason against greater adoption and investment in them.

Researchers fear that when planning for the future some decision-makers prefer to wait for a "unicorn technology" that generates electricity at zero carbon emissions, low cost and high flexibility, rather than invest in imperfect current technologies.

To find out the impact of this strategy, researchers from the Centre for Environmental Policy and the Department of Chemical Engineering at Imperial modelled a range of future scenarios between two extremes. The so-called 'go' option would see extensive investments in currently viable renewable technologies now. The 'wait' option advocates holding out for cheaper, more advanced low carbon energy technologies down the line.

The team modelled the expansion of Britain's electrical grid under these scenarios, including government investment in technologies such as carbon sequestration and nuclear power now, to the appearance of a breakthrough unicorn technology and its immediate uptake.

They found that whether the "unicorn" materialises or not, delaying investment in today's technologies can have high implications on cost and emissions. For example, waiting for technology that never materializes would increase costs by 61% over deploying existing technologies now.

Even if a "unicorn" technology did appear, waiting would still increase costs, because a lot of fossil fuel infrastructure would still be built, but not used. For example, new natural gas plants and pipelines could be built that would simply not be used when the new technology emerged, meaning the cost of building them was wasted.

Lead-author of the research Clara Heuberger, form the Centre for Environmental Policy, said: "We find that such myopic planning and investment delays lead to poor power systems planning. In particular, such scenarios result in either grossly oversized and underutilised power systems or ones which are far from being decarbonised by 2050."




故事來源:

材料由倫敦帝國學院提供。 注意:內容可能會根據樣式和長度進行編輯。
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