Is the green economy's growth rate a cause for celebration or concern?
綠色經濟的增長率是值得慶祝還是值得關注的因素？
The ability of the green economy to grow at nearly treble the rate of the wider economy is both good news, and massively disappointing It's official: green industries are one of the brightest spots in the UK economy. You don't have to take our word for it, because the Office of National Statistics (ONS) has today confirmed what anyone who works in the environmental sector has long suspected: green industries are one of the country's economic shining stars.
官方表示：綠色產業是英國經濟中最亮點之一。 你不必接受我們的話，因為國家統計局（ONS）今天證實了誰在環境部門工作的人長期以來一直懷疑：綠色工業是該國經濟的閃 亮之星之一。
There is a lot to celebrate in the ONS figures, even when you consider that they are developed through a survey of 14,000 businesses and as such have a pretty chunky margin of error. The five per cent growth recorded by the low carbon and renewable energy sector (LCRE) in 2016 stands in stark contrast to the disappointing 1.8 per cent growth delivered by the wider economy.
ONS數據中有很多值得慶賀的地方，即使考慮到它們是通過對14,000家企業進行的調查而形成的，並且因此具有相當大的誤差範圍。 2016年低碳可再生能源（LCRE）記錄的5％增長率與全球經濟增長率令人失望的1.8％形成鮮明對比。
The 3.3 per cent growth in LCRE employment to 208,000 full time employees is similarly impressive, and while the sector's one per cent share of UK non-financial turnover may sound small it puts it on a par with many major industries. The results are particularly encouraging given the ONS' estimate for 2015 suggested growth across the sector had stalled.
LCRE就業人數增加3.3％至全職員工208,000人，同樣令人印象深刻，雖然該行業佔英國非財務周轉率的百分之一可能聽起來很小，但它與許多主要行業相當。 考慮到ONS對2015年整個行業的增長預期停滯不前，結果令人鼓舞。
It is also important to remember that the LCRE data is a remarkably conservative estimate for the size of the green economy. The survey uses a very narrow definition of 'low carbon', restricting its analysis to energy efficient products and energy monitoring technologies, nuclear, low emission vehicles and infrastructure, the intriguingly titled 'low carbon financial and advisory services', fuel cells and energy storage, the virtually non-existent carbon capture and storage sector, and the full gamut of renewable energy technologies. As a result, a vast array of industries that could be classified as 'low carbon' or 'green' are excluded.
同樣重要的是要記住，LCRE數據對於綠色經濟規模是
Prior to the massively annoying decision to change methodologies and make historical comparison impossible, the ONS used to measure Low Carbon and Environmental Goods and Services. The wider metric took in waste and recycling, water, and a whole host of other environmental industries, resulting in an estimate for 2013 that put the value of the green economy at £122bn in 2013, employing 460,000 people.
在大量討厭改變方法並做出歷史比較的決定之前，ONS用於測量低碳和環境商品和服務。 更廣泛的指標包括廢棄物和回收利用，水和其他一些環境行業，2013年的估計結果顯示，2013年綠色經濟的價值為1220億英鎊，僱用了460,000人。
You can make a strong case that this is a more accurate reflection of the green economy's importance to the wider economy. And you can make a strong case that it too is an underestimate. Large and growing swathes of the farming, retail, manufacturing, consultancy, rail, and shared services industries could all reasonably be defined as green. And even if that is perhaps a bit of a stretch that risks including decidedly non-green sectors in the final figures, the UK's Climate Change Act, the Paris Agreement, and the Clean Growth Strategy all suggest each of these sectors will have to become green in the coming decade. So there are good reasons to think the UK green economy will continue to prosper, despite the headwinds from the sluggish underlying performance of the wider economy.
More encouraging still, the government appears to have finally signed up fully to this narrative, with Number 10, BEIS, and Defra all singing off the same hymn sheet in praise of green industries as an engine for both economic growth and environmental protection. This week's characteristically misjudged comments from Theresa May's former advisor Nick Timothy suggesting that "alighting on the environment is a strange thing to do and reflects some kind of strategic confusion" singularly failed to appreciate how, done well, the environment is both a means to reach out to key demographics that the Tories have lost, and a mechanism for promoting the government's wider industrial and economic strategy. And yet Ministers and green businesses alike would be wise to resist the temptation to pop open the champagne in celebration of the sector's nominally strong economic performance. There is a counter narrative, and it is not a pretty one.
Writing in the foreword to last autumn's Clean Growth Strategy, Business Secretary Greg Clark declared that "the low carbon economy could grow 11 per cent per year between 2015 and 2030, four times faster than the projected growth of the economy as a whole". According to the ONS in the first year of that period the LCRE sector actually contracted marginally, in the second year of the period it grew five per cent - good, but a long way short of 11 per cent.
The sad truth is that set against the gargantuan scale of the climate crisis and the immense economic opportunity offered by decarbonisation a five per cent growth rate is a pretty paltry return. Digging into the data, the picture for the UK gets even more worrying. Sales for the solar sector plummeted from £3.1bn in 2015 to £2bn in 2016. Revenues and employment across the renewable heat, hydropower, low carbon financial and advisory services, and carbon capture and storage sectors are all miniscule. The sector's trade imbalance worsened, with LCRE imports soaring 38.6 per cent in 2016 to more than £6bn, while exports rose just 1.4 per cent to £3.7bn.
There was extremely impressive growth recorded in Scotland and Wales, where LCRE revenues rose 7.7 per cent and 37.4 per cent respectively. But the contrast with the 2.8 per cent growth recorded in England only serves to highlight how supportive policy environments have a huge role to play in scaling up low carbon investment. The outlook is also a cause for concern. The figures for 2016 saw a solid contribution from the onshore and offshore wind sectors. But the onshore wind farm pipeline has been contracting since the government froze the industry out of the contract for difference subsidy regime and the offshore wind pipeline is extremely lumpy with investment likely to fluctuate year-on-year.Meanwhile, the solar industry still lacks a clear route to market and the energy efficiency sector has long maintained more government funding is required if it is to scale up. Figures released earlier this month from Bloomberg New Energy Finance suggested UK clean energy investment plummeted 56 per cent last year to $10.3bn.
Next year's ONS figures could make for bleak reading. The retrenchment of the renewables sector may have been required to ease upward pressure on power bills, but with onshore wind and solar now the cheapest forms of new power available and the government vocally committed to 'clean growth' there is no excuse for continuing to deny crucial parts of the green economy a route to market. More broadly, the unwavering political and policy support offered in Scotland and Wales - all at relatively low cost to the taxpayer - demonstrates how investment in the low carbon economy can be unlocked if the right economic environment is created.
The ONS figures confirm green industries represent an enormous economic opportunity and are capable of consistently outperforming the wider economy. But they also show that this opportunity is still a long way from being realized.
國家統計局的數據證實，綠色產業代表著巨大的經濟機遇，並且能夠始終超越更廣泛的經濟。 但他們也表明，這個機會離實現還有很長的路要走。
Source:https://www.businessgreen.com/bg/analysis/3025747/is-the-green-economys-growth-rate-a-cause-for-celebration-or-concern
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